In our final election preview, MLC commissioned EPIC-MRA to survey voters in Michigan’s 61^st House District, currently held by Republican Representative Brandt Iden. Running against Iden for a second consecutive election is Pastor John Fisher. In 2014, Iden defeated Mr. Fisher 48-43% with Libertarian candidate Michael Stampfler taking 9% of the vote. This district is located in Kalamazoo County and includes the City of Portage and four surrounding townships.

At the time of this survey, Oct. 23 and 24, Democrat John Fisher led his Republican opponent, Brandt Iden, by 2% in the “solid” vote and a total of 3% when factoring in “leaning” voters.  These results are within the margin of error for the survey, leading to the conclusion that the race is effectively tied, according to John Cavanagh of EPIC-MRA. One of the issues that outside observers are watching in this race is the impact of the Trump vs. Clinton presidential matchup. Mr. Iden was an early, and outspoken, supporter of Mr. Trump and served as an official delegate at the GOP convention in Cleveland for Trump. Despite Iden’s support, Mr. Trump is trailing Mrs. Clinton significantly, 50-40%. Both Clinton and Trump are underwater on their favorability in this district, but Trump’s rate is considerably more negative with a 60% unfavorable rating and only 38% having a favor

able opinion of Mr. Trump.

As we head into the final weekend of campaigning, Mr. Iden’s favorability is 43% to 42% unfavorable and Mr. Fisher has a favorability rating of 35-34%. However, Mr. Fisher had 31% of respondents undecided on favorability with just 15% of respondents undecided on Mr. Iden. These numbers indicate there is more growth potential for Mr. Fisher than Mr. Iden. The question remains, can Democrats reach those voters without an opinion of their candidate in the final days with a message that resonates and pushes them toward supporting Mr. Fisher.

This race will be one to watch election night and could be a pleasant surprise for House Democrats if Mr. Fisher is able to continue the momentum.

Michigan Legislative Consultants is a bipartisan lobbying firm based in Lansing, Michigan. Our team of lobbyists and procurement specialists provide a wide range of services for some of the most respected companies in America. For more on MLC, visit www.mlcmi.com or connect with us on LinkedIn and Twitter.