Yesterday, Michigan held its primary election. As we have detailed in previous blog posts, campaigning is being done in new and unique ways as candidates navigate the coronavirus. While candidates have changed and adapted campaign tactics, politics has remains very personal. This is especially true for the State House where 3,000-4,000 votes can secure a party nomination for state representative. With a relatively low number of votes needed, that interpersonal connectivity – the facetime – with voters is vital. Mix in a global health pandemic that forces social distancing, which at worst removes, and at best limits, the face-to-face interaction that occurs during traditional election years, you have an unprecedented election with massive uncertainty in outcomes.

As data and election results are finalized for this year’s primary, I’ll be looking closely at the absentee ballot voter percentages and data around absentee voters.

A few of the data points that were released in the week leading up to yesterday’s primary election includes:

2016 Primary Election Absentee Voter Data

• • From 7 days before the Primary Election in 2016
    • just over 540,000 absentee applications were received by local clerks.
    • Of those requested ballots, 307,253 were returned completed – a ballot return rate of 57%.

2018 Primary Election Absentee Voter Data

• • Total primary election absentee ballot requests in 2018 was 677,621.
  • Of the total number of ballots requested by voters, 626,512 were returned which is a 92% return rate.

2020 Primary Election Absentee Voter Data

• • From 7 days before this year’s primary election:
    • 1,977,095 absentee ballots were requested, a nearly 266% increase in absentee ballot requests from 2016 and a 192% increase from the 2018 primary election.
    • Of the ballots requested, 903,717 ballots have been returned – a return rate of 45%.

The major cause for the drastic uptick for this primary election is that every registered voter in Michigan received an absentee ballot application, which has not occurred in previous elections. Additionally, in 2018, Michigan voters enacted a constitutional amendment which among a number of things, included any-reason absentee voting.

As the final numbers are tallied and party primaries are finalized, pundits and scholars will look closely at the voting data. Was there a total uptick in voters or were turnout numbers similar, they just did it on a higher percentage through absentee voting? If there was higher turnout, there will be lots of discussion on who those new voters were, how they voted (in person or absentee ballot), and if turnout can provide insight into the likely outcome for the November election.

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