House District 106 is the second district in MLC’s series analyzing competitive State House districts going into Election Day. The 106^th District is made up of Alcona, Alpena, Iosco, Presque Isle, and parts of Cheboygan County along the sunrise side of Michigan’s coast. The district was represented by Representative Peter Pettalia before his tragic death earlier this fall. Democratic candidate Robert Kennedy is making a second run for State Representative after losing in 2014 to Pettalia 55-45%. On the Republican side, Cheboygan County Commissioner Sue Allor earned the Republican nomination after beating three Republican challengers in a hotly contested primary. As is the case in a number of competitive races across the state, a Libertarian candidate, Dana Carver is also running.

MLC commissioned Lansing based EPIC-MRA to conduct an automated survey on October 22 and 23 in the 106^th House District. Setting the stage for this race is the district demographics as this district has one of the oldest voter populations. Due to the age of voters, there is a high percentage of absentee ballots cast prior to Election Day. At the time of the survey, Republican Sue Allor held a commanding 11-point lead over Mr. Kennedy 52-41% with Libertarian candidate Dana Carver getting 2% and 4% undecided.

Further strengthening Allor’s position is her favorability among voters, with a 50% favorable rating to 33% unfavorable.  Mr. Kennedy had a favorable to unfavorable rating of 45%-42%. Also helping the Republican candidate is Presidential candidate Donald Trump’s popularity among voters. In the district, Trump leads Clinton 50-41% while 62% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of Ms. Clinton. Based on the results of this survey, Mr. Kennedy will need to overcome a 9-point deficit, high unfavorable numbers, and an unpopular Democratic Presidential candidate to win on November 8.

EPIC-MRA co-founder John Cavanagh remarked that “these results are outside the ±3.5% margin of error for the survey, leading to the conclusion that Allor is the likely winner of this contest, notwithstanding the eleven percent of the electorate that is still theoretically persuadable.” Based on the overview results of this survey, it appears Republicans are in a good position to keep this House District on Election Day.

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