The 71^st House District was one of the most competitive state house seats in 2014 when then candidate Tom Barrett upset incumbent Theresa Abed by just 148 votes out of the over 35,000 cast. As we move toward November 8, Michigan House Democrats have their eye on majority by flipping nine seats currently held by Republicans. For House Democrats to have a great election night and take over majority, the 71^st district is one seat they will need to win.

MLC commissioned a survey with EPIC-MRA of the 71^st House District to gain further insight into the race between Barrett and Abed. The poll surveyed 800 voters on October 18 and 19. The 71^st district consists of a portion of Eaton County and starts just west of the state capital. This race also has a wildcard with Libertarian Candidate Marc Lord in the race. With just a few hundred votes making a difference, a third-party candidate could substantially factor into the outcome.

The results showed a dead heat with Barrett leading Abed 45-44%. Independent candidate Marc Lord took 3%, and 8% of voters are undecided. The undecided voters are breaking slightly more for Barrett, 48-46%, over Abed. Barrett had stronger favorability numbers with 50% of voters having a favorable opinion of him and 38% having an unfavorable opinion, while Abed was at 49% favorable and 41% unfavorable. However, these numbers showed that both candidates have vulnerabilities, and the negative campaigns ads and mailers have been effective.

After analyzing the data, EPIC-MRA co-founder, John Cavanagh stated “Rep. Tom Barrett leads his Democratic opponent Theresa Abed by one percentage point in the “solid” vote and a total of two percentage points when factoring in “leaning” voters.” Cavanagh went on to say, “these results are within the margin of error for the survey, leading to the conclusion that the race is effectively tied at the time the poll was conducted.”

Barrett holds a 14-point advantage (57% to 33%) in the western portion of the district, countered somewhat by the eleven-point lead enjoyed by Abed (54% to 43%) in the slightly more populous eastern portion.  Abed also holds a slim two-point lead (48% to 46%) in heavily contested and slightly Democratic Delta Township.

Also playing a role in the outcome of this state representative race, Hillary Clinton holds a 44-42% lead over Donald Trump, with voters listing improving the economy and providing jobs as the most important issue facing Michigan.

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Michigan Legislative Consultants is a bipartisan lobbying firm based in Lansing, Michigan. Our team of lobbyists and procurement specialists provide a wide range of services for some of the most respected companies in America. For more on MLC, visit www.mlcmi.com or connect with us on LinkedIn and Twitter.