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Michigan Budget / Revenue Numbers Revised Up Over $3 Billion

Jan 14, 2022

Today, the directors of the House and Senate Fiscal Agencies came together with State Treasurer Rachael Eubanks and State Budget Director Chris Harkins to reach a consensus for projected state revenue for the upcoming fiscal year. At the biannual Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference (CREC) the principals heard testimony from various economic experts on the various key aspects of the state and national economy that will impact revenues.

Revenue numbers in the state remain high, including the General Fund, which for FY2021 saw the highest annual rate of growth in four decades. For the current fiscal year, the overall revenue projection was increased by $1.72 billion from the May 2021 estimate. Additionally, FY2023 revenue estimates were increased by $1.40 billion from prior estimates. Speaking on the revised numbers, Treasurer Eubanks stated, ““Revenue growth continues to be strong as the economy recovers. We are also still seeing the positive impacts of the federal stimulus programs. We expect growth rates to return to more typical levels as the support of the stimulus fades.”

Aspects within the economic forecast include:

    • The pandemic is beginning to weigh on economic activity again
    • The national payroll job count is 3.5 million below the pre-pandemic peak
    • Job openings remain high and filling jobs is getting more difficult
    • Inflation is rising the fastest since 1981
    • A federal funds rate hike is anticipated in May 2022
    • A repeal of the SALT deduction cap by Congress is expected to pass
    • The lack of inventory is driving higher vehicle prices
    • The Detroit three share of vehicle sales is down
    • Baseline income tax is expected to decline in 2022 and grow in 2023 and 2024

The ongoing pandemic remains one of the largest risks to the economy. Additionally, the supply chain shortage remains a sizeable risk in several sectors throughout the economy, as does the midterm elections in November, strains on the housing sector, and the Federal fiscal path.

The House, Senate, and administration will use the agreed upon numbers as they begin drafting the state budget for the upcoming 2022-2023 Fiscal Year. The next step in the process occurs when Governor Gretchen Whitmer presents her budget recommendations to the legislature next month, followed by the Appropriations Subcommittees beginning to meet on the budgets for which are under their purview.

Michigan Legislative Consultants is a bipartisan lobbying firm based in Lansing, Michigan. Our team of lobbyists and procurement specialists provide a wide range of services for some of the most respected companies in America. For more on MLC, visit www.mlcmi.com or connect with us on LinkedIn and Twitter.

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