Economic Forecasts Released

Liz Gullett

Nov 23, 2016

The Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics (RSQE) at the University of Michigan has released their most recent economic forecasts for both the state and the nation. While this forecast wasn’t presented to state officials, RSQE has presented to the House and Senate Appropriations Committee’s January and May Consensus Revenue Estimating Conferences for decades. The state uses their outlooks as one of the predictors when shaping the state’s budget.

According to RSQE, Michigan is entering its eighth year of economic recovery and they are extending their forecast of the recovery period to nine years. Job creation in 2016 should net similar job gains as the previous two years. Local inflation is forecasted to increase to 1.6% in 2016 and 2.2% in 2017, while personal income growth is projected to decline from 4.6% to 3.5% in 2016. To read the highlights from the Michigan forecast, please click here.

The U.S. economic outlook projects the economy to grow by 2.9% in the third quarter of 2016, the strongest rate in two years. Unemployment insurance claims are setting record low levels relative to the size of the labor force. RSQE is forecasting for 2017-2018 there will be stability in most economic areas; they project real GDP will grow, rising interest rates implying a stronger dollar, and employment gains will slow as the market reaches full employment. To read the Executive Summary for the U.S. Economic Outlook, please click here.

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