State House districts have approximately 90,000 residents, of those residents, 50-60% will vote in a November general election. Approximately 15% of voters can potentially be swayed from one side to another.  Every election cycle, hundreds of thousands of dollars is spent targeting those voters. Campaign polling can be an effective tool to determine where a candidate stands with voters and more importantly, an opportunity to gather information on voters in order to know what issues they care about and how to effectively communicate a message.

Coming off the 2016 election, pollsters faced significant criticism. For example, during the Michigan Democratic primary, polls had Hillary Clinton up twenty-one-points over her rival, Senator Bernie Sanders. However, on election day, Senator Sanders pulled off the upset, winning by 1.5% of the vote. With misses like this, can polls be trusted, and more importantly, can they continue to be effective?

Not all polls are created equal

It’s vital to ensure that an accurate sample of the population is being surveyed. Many of the polls that have missed the mark didn’t have the correct sample. Polling outcomes can be influenced by factors such as age, gender, political leaning, race, as well as a host of other factors. Good polling firms take those factors into account and make sure to mitigate any bias.

Questions make the difference

Poorly worded questions can ruin a poll. If a polling firm asks confusing or leading questions that can influence the results and diminish the effectiveness of the information learned.

Use information collected for what it is: A TOOL

For campaigns utilizing polling, or for the average voter who monitors the elections polls, it is important to remember, the data is just a snapshot of the electorate and should be used as a tool in understanding voter tendencies. Polls are NOT a predication, but can provide insight and direction of voters. The more data points a candidate has, the more diverse questions that are asked, the more information used to verify responses and the direction of a group of voters, the more information can be obtained. Campaigns that maximize the information provided by polling data to improve voter engagement, understand how to effectively use that data as a tool.

Michigan Legislative Consultants is a bipartisan lobbying firm based in Lansing, Michigan. Our team of lobbyists and procurement specialists provide a wide range of services for some of the most respected companies in America. For more on MLC, visit www.mlcmi.com or connect with us on LinkedIn and Twitter.