With less than one-week to go before the November 8th election, all eyes are turning toward the 30^th House District in Western Macomb County. This race is a matchup between Democratic candidate, Michael Notte, and Republican candidate, Diana Farrington, the wife of current representative, Jeff Farrington. Mr. Notte’s father, Richard Notte, served as Mayor of Sterling Heights for twenty-two years, which has helped his campaign for state representative.

An interesting data point in each of the races that MLC has surveyed has been the effect of the presidential race on down ballot races and this district is no exception. Donald Trump enjoys an unusually strong majority of respondents issuing a favorable rating with over three-quarters of his 57% rating coming in the form of “Very” favorable.  Conversely, Hillary Clinton’s favorability rating is more than an inverse mirror image of Trump’s, with her favorability at 40%, and nearly six-in-ten respondents issuing an unfavorable rating of 59%– 85% percent of which coming in the more intense “Very” unfavorable. In this district, these favorability numbers have transferred into a massive 14-point lead for Trump over Clinton, 55-41%.

Anecdotally, you would believe Mr. Trump’s support should be a significant benefit for the Republican, Mrs. Farrington. However, in this survey, the data showed only a modest lead for Mrs. Farrington, 49-43%, just outside of the 4% margin of error. Historically in Macomb County, voters will often split their ballots between Republicans and Democrats, explaining the significant difference in polls between the presidential race and the state representative race. However, in politics you just need one-more vote than your opponent and Mrs. Farmington’s lead puts her in a good position heading into the final days. 

MLC asked John Cavanagh of EPIC-MRA who the campaigns will be targeting in the final days before the election. Mr. Cavanaugh explained, “When combined with those who reported themselves solidly undecided in the match-up, a total of 90 respondents expressed equivocation regarding the race for state representative, thus, approximately fifteen percent of voters in the 30^th House District are subject to persuasive campaign messages from the candidates.” Cavanaugh went on to say that “These results point to a likely victory by Farrington in the upcoming election, notwithstanding favorability numbers lower than Notte’s and the fifteen percent of the electorate that is still theoretically persuadable.”

It is still anyone’s race and both the Republicans and Democrats will be watching this race closely on election night.

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